NFL Week 3 Best Betting Picks – NFL Sports Betting
NFL Week 3 is already here. As you curate your perfect week 3 betting card, you’ve made a great choice to stop by with us. Weekly, you will always find updated public betting trends here as we learn to take advantage of that data.
Through the first two weeks we’ve been able to gather so much information and began to understand where each team stands. Basically, the Buccaneers are good and the Chargers are bad – just as everyone expected.
We enter this week 3 Sunday up 1.5u thanks to the under barely cashing on Thursday night. It made sense though, Vegas wouldn’t have been able to handle another over. There is so much value and potential on the slate today, and I cannot wait to get into it.
If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. There is data available; information that can help us win more bets, and I want to build the trends for it. I find it so interesting to learn when to fade the public and when to bet with them, because it is an avenue in sports betting no one has really touched. We do this every week, and we only get more information with every game played. I also have a podcast where I discuss these trends and break them down with my Happy Hour Sports colleagues, so check that out for the most information!
I have taken a new approach to my writing this year, as it has gained a lot of traction since we started Sharpen the Public. Here you will find the bets that im taking every week and the description of why I’m taking it. We’re not trying to be those Twitter cappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us.
It’s only Week 3 and the games and data are only going to get better. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets.
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WEEK 3 NFL BETTING TRENDS
Since we are already through week 2, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 3 bets. In my most recent article, I discussed the outcome of the public’s week one betting, so you can check that out here. But, here are the sparknotes.
- Public Betting Percentage: 15-16-1 ATS
- Money Betting Percentage: 13-18-1 ATS
- Sharp Differential: 15-16-1 ATS
- Public on Over: 9-8
- Money on Over: 6-4
- Sharp Diff. on Over: 5-2
- Public on Under: 7-8
- Money on Under: 11-11
- Sharp Diff on Under: 13-12
In a complete turn around from week 1, others decided to take the cake in Week 2. As you can see from the public betting trends, the money is not doing well. Based on last years trends, that is out of the ordinary. I am prepared to back the money in these next couple of weeks (especially on the under) as it looks to get right.
Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!
Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!
WEEK 3 NFL BEST BETS AND ANALYSIS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS NEW YORK JETS (+2.5), TOTAL 36
There is so little to talk about when it comes to Zach Wilson. He looks scared out there, and despite the Jets having a great defense and play makers around him – he just is not enough. Last year in this matchup, the Pats won on a last minute punt return touchdown. These AFC divisional matches are always slow paced and gritty games. I expect Belichick to make life very very difficult for Zach Wilson, while the Jets defense holds Mac Jones and company from doing much themselves. Hopefully the tropical storm also makes things difficult here. Andy constantly talks about how much he loves a low under, and totals this low are 18-5 in their last 23 to to under – take it.
The Play: Under 36 -110 (-110)
TENNESSEE TITANS AND CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3), TOTAL 39.5
As the Browns look to figure out how to handle the loss of Nick Chubb, the winningest underdog coach in recent history comes to town. I think this is a really good get right spot for the Browns and a great look to fade a public darling Titans. They profited us a unit last week, but everyone is talking about Mike Vrabel as an underdog. Sadly for them, the Titans really do not match up well against this stout Browns defense. I mean, the Browns have not even allowed an opposing team to play a play in the redzone. Also, with Chubb out, I expect Watson’s improvement this year to be streamlined and it begins today. The public is heavily on the Titans with a nice, increasing, sharp differential towards the Browns. So I think this is a great spot to back one of the best defenses in the NFL against an offense that has not shown much.
The Play: Browns -3 -115 (1u)
DENVER BRONCOS VS MIAMI DOLPHINS (-6), TOTAL 47.5
While everyone is raving about Tua and Tyreek Hill, the Broncos have undergone a significant transformation from last year. Sean Payton has this offense playing football again, and it is making a difference. Yet, their defense is a complete 180 from what they were last year. Now, the Broncos head to Miami to face a red hot Dolphins team that look like Super Bowl contenders. Although, this Miami defense leaves a lot to be desired. Surprisingly, I think the Broncos are the better bet here, there are a lot of trends to back them up like Payton after a loss and week 3 road dogs both hitting at over 60%. We have to grit our teeth and hope that Patrick Surtain can cover Tyreek Hill enough to not let him go off, because in a shootout I don’t trust the Broncos chances. I expect better things from their defense.
The Play: Broncos +6 -110 (1u)
DALLAS COWBOYS VS ARIZONA CARDINALS (-12.5), TOTAL 43
The Dallas Cowboys look like world beaters up to this point, but I don’t know how they have gotten away with playing the worst teams in the NFL. They murdered the Giants and Jets, and now get the Cardinals, like what are the schedulers even doing. Despite the Cardinals being 0-2, they have played decent football – good enough football to actually fight for wins. I think they are better than what people think, and we are getting so much action on the Cowboys in this spot. It’s not my favorite play on the slate, but I think we have to hold our nose and hope the Cardinals can not get blown out. 12.5 points at home is a lot for any NFL team, and I have not seen enough from the Cowboys to justify them getting this many points.
The Play: Cardinals +12.5 -110 (.5u)
CHICAGO BEARS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-12.5), TOTAL 48.5
As much as I have loved the Bears these first two weeks, they have let me down equally as much. This offense looks completely lost and they may have the worst defense in football. To make matters worse, they now have to go into Arrowhead to play the defending Super Bowl Champions, amidst all of their off the field drama. This is going to be a blowout, but I am hesitant to play the spread due to Mahomes’ woes as a large favorite. So, I think there is a lot of value in the under. The Chiefs will definitely get theirs, but likely take their foot off the gas in the second half while still not allowing the Bears to score. Something like 30-7 makes sense to me here. The public for some reason is on the over, and the money is heavy towards the under – back the Chiefs defense here.
The Play: Under 48.5 – 110 (1u)
Other plays without a writeup:
- Commanders/Bills u43: Taken on the Podcast for 1 unit.
- Lions/Falcons o47.5 1u -110
- Teaser: Bills -0.5 And Saints +7
THE LEANS (MAY TAKE SOME OF THESE CLOSER TO KICKOFF)
After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 3 of NFL!
I really wanted to take the over in this game, but currently 81% of the public is on it. Last year when that happened, overs went 2-9. The Chargers pass defense has looked abysmal and now they get JJ and Jordan Addison. I lean the Vikings and over, but am staying away for now.
The Texans look pretty juicy to me in this spot. An AFC South divisional showdown while CJ Stroud has looked pretty good in my opinion. Staying away because I have put too much money on one of the worst teams in the league and they have not helped me out.
I lean Colts here, but am honestly unsure where it will end up. I think the Ravens are only getting better, and they may go to town on a not so great Colts team. Staying away.
Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on twitter, I appreciate all feedback. I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public.
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