The Sharpen the Public Podcast covers Best Bets fort Week 5 in the NFL – Using public betting trends
It’s everyone’s favorite day of the week again; NFL Week 5 has arrived and we are ready to bring you the best betting trends and stats to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers and even the Dallas Cowboys vs. the San Francisco 49ers.
We are through four weeks in the NFL and have already witnessed a lot of unexpected outcomes. Chaos in these early weeks of the 2023 NFL season can lead to overconfidence from the general betting public, and our public betting trends indicate that may be extra likely this year.
We will dive deeper into it later in the article, but through the first four weeks, the public is a staggering 34-27-3 ATS! Who knew that fading the public didn’t work?
If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We wanted to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money percentages, but when the numbers are brought up, there is no context around them.
Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles on this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the information. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week!
With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking it. We’re not trying to be those Twitter cappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did.
It’s already week 4 and the games and data are only going to get better. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets.
Deej Article Record from Week 3:
- Bets: 6-5
- Leans: 5-1
Week 5 NFL Betting Trends
Since we are already through week 4, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 5 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL Betting Picks tab. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:
- Public Betting Percentage: 34-27-3 ATS
- Money Betting Percentage: 34-27-3 ATS
- Sharp Differential: 32-29-3 ATS
- Public on Over: 17-17
- Money on Over: 13-10
- Sharp Diff. on Over: 10-6
- Public on Under: 18-10
- Money on Under: 25-16
- Sharp Diff on Under: 29-19
Now, we are the only people that provide deep insights on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from.
For example, through week 3, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 14-0 ATS, which is absolutely insane! We found awesome trends like this last year, and it will never get old here at Happy Hour Sports, so please share these articles with someone who needs to place some better bets.
As for the general trends – we are starting to see the numbers fall similarly to what they were last year. Money and sharp differential on the under are doing very well, and I am excited to see the sharp differential on the over-perform well to start the season, as last year it went 36-45. We also saw a great 10-5 ATS week from the money percentage, which we expected based on last year’s trends.
The main point to highlight is that you cannot blindly fade the public. Through 4 weeks this year, the general betting public is 7 games over .500 and nothing can stop them. However, while it is not a single hive mind betting for the public, I believe there may be some overconfidence for the bets they place in the future. But, in every bet we take here at Happy Hour Sports, we consider the implications of these unique public betting trends.
Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!
Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!
Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Analysis
Expect fewer plays since we have bye weeks now.
Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons (-2), Total 42
In this early slate, it feels difficult to pick some sides. And even in this matchup, I’ve gone back and forth all week. However, I think this Texans team is too overvalued. With a depleted offensive line, CJ Stroud has played amazingly. Yet, now they are playing an experienced and hungry defensive line in the Atlanta Falcons. Add to that Bijan and the Falcons have one of the best rushing offenses in the league and the Texans have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. I do not like Ridder as a quarterback, but if there were any game for the Falcons to get back on track, it’s this one at home. I’m backing some public regression as the numbers don’t indicate a sharp side here, but 61% of the bets are on the Texans. This could be a shootout, but either way, I think the Falcons get it done by at least a field goal.
The Play: Falcons -2 -110 (1u)
New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots (+4.5), Total 39.5
In what is itching to be the defensive game of the day, the banged-up Saints travel up to Foxborough to take on the questionable Mac Jones and the Patriots. To put it bluntly, the Patriots are averaging 13.8ppg and have not crossed 20 yet this year. The Saints barely know what they are getting from their quarterback as well. I think this is a great spot for Belichick and co. to take advantage of this banged-up offense and keep them off the board. They are going to have to in order to secure a win for themselves. There is almost no public/money support towards the over here, which can be a scary sign. But thankfully, from the trends we track here – it’s good to see things like this. Take the under.
The Play: Under 39.5 -102 (1u)
Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams (+4), Total 50.5
I said I was scared of this game on the podcast, and I still kind of am. The return of Cooper Kupp, tangled with Puka Nacua and Matthew Stafford does not bode well for this Eagles secondary. However, the Rams’ offensive line is not very good, and are ranked at 24th by PFF thus far into the season. Jalen Carter and this Eagles defensive front are hungry after the Commanders game, so I expect them to be able to get home and prevent the ball from moving downfield to these elite weapons Stafford has. Offensively, I think the Eagles are fine with Swift and Hurts. The Rams allow a top-third worst yards per carry against the run, while the Eagles are a top-run squad with this offensive line. The public is split on this one, but the money screams the Eagles with a 15% differential at the time of writing this. This number may move up, so get in while you can.
The Play: Eagles -4 – 110 (1u)
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos (-2), Total 43.5
In another wonderful 4 o’clock slate game we have two world beaters the Jets and the Broncos facing off. The Broncos have looked absolutely terrible this year while the Jets seemed to impress everyone on Sunday night. Zach Wilson looked to finally hit his stride on offense, which was exciting to see. Breece Hall is also unlimited now in his offensive role, so I believe there is some untapped potential for this offense. Now they get to go up against one of the worst defenses in football? Sign me up for the over. The only bad thing about this Broncos team is their defense, so I’ll believe in the veteran QB and coach to find a way to neutralize their bad defense by scoring whatever the Jets put up +some. I want to take the Broncos here, but can’t quite bring myself to do it right now, I love the over – one of the only games today with a sharp differential towards the over.
The Play: Over 43.5 (1u) -110
Plays without a writeup:
- Under 38 -110 Ravens/Steelers (podcast)
- Under 45 -110 Cowboys/Niners (podcast)
- Cardinals +3/Saints +7 Teaser on the Podcast -130 for 1 unit
The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)
After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 5 of NFL!
- Panthers/Lions – I lean Lions here because the Panthers cannot seem to get anything done offensively with Bryce Young at QB. The sharp differential screams taking the Panthers at this line but I can’t do it.
- Giants/Dolphins – I lean Giants here because there is no value in grabbing the Dolphins at 12.5 points. Although, they could easily cover, which is why I’m staying away. I also like the over. The giants just suck and I can’t find any value in this inflated line.
- Titans/Colts – I lean Colts here as divisional dogs with the better offense and the return of JT. staying away because the numbers point to the titans, but that may change come Gametime.
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