The Sharpen the Public Podcast covers Best Bets fort Week 6 in the NFL – Using public betting trends
The first third of this young NFL season is about to come to a close, which means NFL Week 6 has arrived and we are ready to bring you the best betting trends and stats to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the Detroit Lions vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and even the Seattle Seahawks vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.
We are through five weeks in the NFL and each week things keep getting crazier. Chaos in these early weeks of the 2023 NFL season can lead to overconfidence from the general betting public, and our unique public betting trends indicate that may be extra likely this year.
Per usual we will take this point a bit further later, but through the first five weeks, the public is a staggering 44-31-3 ATS! This is the Public’s best start to a year since 2005, which is absurd.
If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We wanted to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money percentages, but when the numbers are brought up, there is no context around them.
Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles on this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the data. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week!
With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking it. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did.
It’s already week 6 and the games and data are only going to get better. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets.
Deej Article Record from Week 3:
- Bets: 4-2-1
- Leans: 2-2
Week 6 NFL Betting Trends
Since we are already through week 5, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 6 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:
- Public Betting Percentage: 44-31-3 ATS
- Money Betting Percentage: 41-34-3 ATS
- Sharp Differential: 40-35-3 ATS
- Public on Over: 19-24
- Money on Over: 16-16
- Sharp Diff. on Over: 12-9
- Public on Under: 20-13
- Money on Under: 28-18
- Sharp Diff on Under: 35-22
Now, we are the only people that provide deep insights on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from.
For example, through week 5, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 16-1 ATS, which is absolutely crazy! We found awesome trends like this last year, and it will never get old here at Happy Hour Sports, so please share these articles with someone who needs to place some better bets.
As for the general trends – we are seeing the total numbers fall similarly to what they were last year. Money and sharp differential on the under are doing very well, and I am excited to see the sharp differential on the over-perform well to start the season, as last year it went 36-45.
However, the public is the story this year. It feels like every bet they take is on the right side, yet no one believes it will continue. Last year the public held around .500 for a majority of the year, so I would expect a regression to that is coming at some point. The issue is how can we know which week is the right one to fade them entirely?
We can’t, but we can take a look at the deeper trends each week. Knowing last week that the public did fine betting over 75% of the tickets on one side leads me to believe that they are still reading things fine. Although, the public did back the Broncos on Thursday and ended up not catching.
Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!
Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on Twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!
Week 6 NFL Best Bets and Analysis
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears (+3), Total 44
An NFC North divisional matchup awaits us as the Vikings head into Chicago as 3-point favorites. While I have liked how the Bears have played offensively recently, I think there is some regression to be had here. Even without Justin Jefferson this Vikings team is all-around better than the Bears. The Vikings have allowed 21 ppg against a far more difficult strength of schedule than the Bears. Where the Bears have allowed 31 points per game. A big part of the Vikings’ lack of success as well has been their turnover margin, which I expect to begin regressing towards the NFL average. In addition, the public is on the Bears with a 17% sharp differential towards the Vikings. While the Geico trend has not fared well this year, I don’t expect the public to continue their hot streak either. Back to the better Vikings team in a divisional game.
The Play: Vikings -3 -110 (1u)
San Francisco 49ers vs Cleveland Browns (+9.5), Total 36.5
The undefeated 49ers enter a windy Cleveland to play the Browns without Deshaun Watson. In the lowest total of the week, there’s no surprise I like the under. For one, there are some crazy trends backing low totals. Below 37 points the under is 19-5. There will be wind here, and this is the most difficult defense the Niners have played. It’s unlikely the Browns manage to get a lot done on offense against this stout Niners defense with a backup QB as well. I know it’s scarily low for a Niners game, but back the trends. Additionally, 90% of the money is on the under with a slight public edge towards it. I’m backing heavy money on the under here.
The Play: Under 36.5 -110 (1u)
New Orleans Saints vs Houston Texans (+1.5), Total 42.5
The New Orleans Saints enter Houston as 1.5-point favorites. Initially, I think a lot of people would side with Houston here as they have looked really good at home and CJ Stroud is playing like the rookie of the year. That would make sense as to why the public is split on which side to back here (50/50). However, looking closer we see 88% of the money on the Saints, giving them a 30%+ sharp differential. I talked about it on the podcast but I love the Saints here because of their defense. Houston has played well against stout defensive lines (like the Steelers), but the Saints have more than just that. I expect with so much tape now on Stroud that the Saints are able to get it done on the road in order to keep the NFC South competitive.
The Play: Saints -1.5 -110 (1u)
New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders (-3), Total 41.5
It feels like the Patriots and the Under just go hand and hand at this point. 88% of the bets and still a sharp edge towards the under is just absurd. It may seem a little scary, but history shows that when the public is this confident in the under – it hits a large amount of the time. Football-wise, these are both teams that play very slowly on offense. The Raiders love to keep the ball on the ground despite Josh Jacob’s averaging under 70 yards a game. While the Patriots have a tough time airing it out since Mac Jones has very little time in the pocket. Despite the 34 points allowed by the Pats last week, their defense played better than that number would show. Even without Judon and Gonzalez, I expect the Raiders to continue the offensive woes and keep this one low-scoring.
The Play: under 41.5 (1u) -110
Plays without a writeup:
- Under 47.5 Dolphins/Panthers (podcast) 1u
- Bucs +3 -110 1u
- Eagles -1/Seahawks +9 teaser 1u
The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)
The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)
After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 6 of the NFL!
- Colts/Jaguars – I lean Colts here because the Jags are returning from London. Historically teams coming back from London have underperformed, but the Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville in 8 years – so I’m a little hesitant to back them.
- Commanders/Falcons – I lean Commanders here because the Falcons offense continues to look very flat. WAS has a nice sharp edge as well, but I think this one stays close and is decided by a late turnover – so staying away.
- Cardinals/Rams – I lean Cardinals here as divisional dogs. Dobbs has looked great and even played well against the Niners. While the Rams also looked good against the Eagles – I can’t bring myself to back the Cardinals here.
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