The Sharpen the Public Podcast covers Best Bets fort Week 6 in the NFL – Using public betting trends
The first third of this young 2023 NFL season has already come and gone, which means NFL Week 7 has arrived and we are ready to bring you the best betting trends and stats to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the Detroit Lions vs. the Baltimore Ravens and even the Los Angeles Chargers vs. the Kansas City Chiefs.
We are through six weeks in the NFL and things continue to get weirder and weirder. Has yet another crazy under week has led everyone to overthink totals? Chaos in these early weeks of the 2023 NFL seasons continues to lead to overconfidence from the general betting public, and our unique public betting trends indicate things may be turning around for them.
Per usual we will take this point a bit further later, but through the first six weeks the public is a staggering 51-39-3 ATS! This is the Public’s best start to a year since 2005, which is absurd. However, week 5 was their worst week in a while, and that may be a sign that they are headed for a Bloody Sunday.
If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We wanted to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money percentages, but when the numbers are brought up, there is no context around them.
Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles at this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the data. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week!
With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking it. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did.
It’s already week 7 and the games and data are beginning to stack up. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets.
Deej Record from Week 6:
- Bets: 7-4
- Leans: 1-2
Week 7 NFL Betting Trends
Since we are already through week 6, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 7 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:
- Public Betting Percentage: 51-39-3 ATS
- Money Betting Percentage: 49-41-3 ATS
- Sharp Differential: 45-45-3 ATS
- Public on Over: 21-31
- Money on Over: 16-21
- Sharp Diff. on Over: 12-11
- Public on Under: 25-13
- Money on Under: 35-20
- Sharp Diff on Under: 45-23
Now, we are the only people who provide deep recaps on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from the already crazy trends you see above.
For example, through week 6, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 16-2 ATS, which is absolutely crazy! Other crazy trends include a 26-5 record when the under is between a 5-19% sharp differential. Money percentages on the over are 2-8 below 60%, but 14-13 above that number. Public backing the over greater than 70% is 3-12. There is so much cool stuff to derive from this information, whether you want to believe it or not.
As for the general trends – we are still seeing similar trends from last year like the public doing well on the under, but bad on the over. Through 6 weeks last year, the public was 21-39 on overs, so they are pretty much right in line with what happened last year. For context, in Week 7 the public went 5-6 on overs in 2022.
Additionally, the public, money, and sharp differential continue to rake in money backing unders. This week there are more games with sharp edges towards the over, so this will be a telling week in my opinion for the totals. However, keep in mind our trends towards the under last year dropped to slightly below 60% throughout the whole year, whereas the under trends are sitting well above 60% right now.
However, from a spread standpoint, the public continues to be the story this year. It feels like every bet they take is on the right side, yet no one believes it will continue. Last year the public held around .500 for a majority of the year, and finished slightly below it, so I would expect a regression to that is coming at some point. The issue is how can we know which week is the right one to fade them entirely?
We can’t, but we can take a look at the deeper trends each week. Knowing last week the public had its worst week of the season that was not week one, indicates to me they may be on a downturn. We also saw the Jags easily cash in on Thursday night (which we bet), when the Saints were the public dog. These are small things that could lead to a bad week from the public.
Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!
Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!
Week 7 NFL Best Bets and Analysis
Detroit Lions vs Baltimore Ravens (-3), Total 43
In one of the best matchups of the week, the Lions and Jared Goff head into windy Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Lions season has included routs of some bad teams, but they have not come close to a defense quite like the Ravens yet this season. As it stands, the public is split on this game, but there is a 10% sharp edge towards the Ravens. I love this Lions offense, but with Montgomery out the Lions will be forced to put the ball in the air. The issue for them is the conditions will not allow the passing game to be easy. Add to that the Lions are playing a defensive unit with an FPI higher than the Browns (yes, the Ravens defensive FPI is better than Cleveland’s) and I think this is a really tough spot for Goff to come in and continue his cover streak. Hopefully this game sits in the 10-14% sharp range all day and we fit into the 16-2 ATS trend, but I love Lamar here.
The Play: Ravens -3 -102 (1u)
Cleveland Browns vs Indianapolis Colts (+3.5), Total 41
This is yet another week where the Browns are part of my NFL Sunday slate. I mean at this point, it’s almost a no-brainer to back the Browns’ defense and the under. They are a historic defense through 6 weeks this year. With Anthony Richardson out, the Colts offense has looked a bit slower. Minshew ranks bottom of the league in success rate, adjusted EPA, and a few other metrics to back up that claim. Now, he has to face one of the best defensive lines in football who has been great a stopping the run. Add to that the health of Deshaun Watson and I think this is a game that will live between the 20-yard lines. Add in the fact that unders are 7-2 in Browns games with Deshaun Watson and it’s an auto-play here. 97% of the money on the under, and a 13% sharp differential towards it also puts us in the beautiful 26-5 trend towards the under.
The Play: Under 41 -110 (1.5u)
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), Total 37.5
In a team I usually hate to back, I like the Falcons in this spot on the road. For one, Baker is horrible covering as a favorite (12-23-1 ATS) and terrible at home (13-22-1 ATS). Add in to that he is 3-9 ATS against division opponents and Todd Bowles is terrible at covering off a loss, and you have the perfect mixture of trends backing this play. The public loves the Bucs here, but there is a reason the line is +2.5 at +100 in most shops (not BetRivers). Add to that, the sharp differential being pretty low on the Bucs and this game is screaming at us to back the Falcons. While I think Desmond Ridder is one of the worst QBs in the league, if he can clean up the 3 picks from the last game I think they would have easily pulled it out against the Commanders. PFF continues to show Atlanta moving up their rankings and if the pass rush can continue to put Baker Mayfield under pressure, similar to the Lions and Eagles games – the Falcons should be able to come out on top.
The Play: Falcons +3 -114 (1u)
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5), Total 48
Surprisingly, the best thing about the Chiefs this year has been their defense. Add to that the Justin Herbert injury where everything seemed off against the Cowboys, and a divisional game where wind is going to be a factor and I love the under in this spot. Before the last two years, we would see a Chiefs game with a total below 50 and question it. However, now this total still feels high. It is exactly what we got in the Broncos and Chiefs Thursday night game last week, and now you’re getting a (slightly) better Chargers defense and an injured quarterback in Herbert. Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert can easily move the ball it seems, which is why the public is heavy on this over. Yet, there is a massive sharp edge towards the under. I like the Chiefs to cover in this spot, as I think people are looking for reasons to fade them. However, the Chargers have some positive regression incoming. The under is the play for me in this windy divisional matchup.
The Play: Under 48 (1u) -110
Plays without a writeup:
- Giants +9/Bears +8.5 -130 Teaser for 1u (both positive sharp diff. Home dogs with low totals)
- Packers/Broncos o45 -110 (largest sharp differential towards the over)
The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)
The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)
After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 7 of the NFL!
- Bills/Patriots – I lean Patriots here, but I hate it. There is a huge sharp edge towards the Pats and it continues to move the line, but the Pats look awful. They may sneak a cover out but I cannot bring myself to bet it. The total also feels low, so I think I am way off on this game.
- Steelers/Rams – I lean Steelers here with the whole world on the Rams. I love to back Tomlin as a dog, but this is a tough spot for him. While the Steelers defensive front has been decent and should take care of a week of OLine, Kupp, and Puka are going to wreak havoc on this secondary. I think the Steelers pull it out, but it’s close to call.
- Cardinals/Seahawks – I lean Cardinals in this divisional matchup, but they have not looked great as of late. The seahawks are in a far better position to edge out the inferior Cardinals. Although, the sharps and money do like the Cardinals as well.
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