The Sharpen the Public Podcast covers Best Bets fort Week 6 in the NFL – Using public betting trends
There is nothing quite like an NFL season, and we are already through one-third of the year, which also means NFL Week 8 has arrived and we are ready to bring you the best betting trends and stats to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the San Francisco 49ers vs the Cincinnati Bengals and even the Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
We have already seen seven weeks of this 2023 season and things continue to get weirder and weirder. Will yet another crazy week towards the under lead everyone to continue overthinking totals? We have seen the public cool down from their hot start to the 2023 season, so will a bad week lead to overconfidence from the general betting public? Our unique public betting trends indicate things may continue to be poor for them, just as we predicted last week.
Per usual we will take this point a bit further later, but through the first seven weeks, the public is a staggering 58-47-3 ATS! This is the Public’s best start to a year since 2005, which is just plain crazy. However, they had their first negative week since week one. Additionally, the public continues to read overs horribly, but more on that a little later.
If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We want to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money data, but when those numbers are brought up, there is no context around them. People assume high tickets on one side is bad, and high money on the other side is good. However, we are here to prove those claims right or wrong, every single week.
Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles on this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the data. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week, and subscribe to our new YouTube!
With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking it. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did. We read 12 out of 13 spreads right last week, damn those Cardinals not covering even though they had a +3 turnover differential.
It’s already week 8 and the games and data are beginning to stack up. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets.
Deej Record from Week 7:
- Bets: 6-3-1
- Leans: 2-1
Week 8 NFL Betting Trends
Since we are already through week 7, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 8 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:
- Public Betting Percentage: 56-47-3 ATS (54%)
- Money Betting Percentage: 53-50-3 ATS (51%)
- Sharp Differential: 54-49-3 ATS (52%)
- Public on Over: 23-37 (38%)
- Money on Over: 17-26 (40%)
- Sharp Diff. on Over: 12-11 (52%)
- Public on Under: 26-16 (62%)
- Money on Under: 37-24 (40%)
- Sharp Diff on Under: 52-28 (65%)
Now, we are the only people who provide deep recaps on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from the already crazy trends you see above.
For example, through week 7, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 17-4 ATS, which is absolutely crazy! However, the good thing about doing this week in and week out is to try and predict what will happen to trends early on. We saw this same range go 26-19 ATS in 2022, so you may be able to fade this range as it makes its way down a trail of regression.
Other crazy trends include a 31-9 record when the under is between a 5-19% sharp differential. Money percentages on the over are 2-12 below 60%, but 15-14 above that number. Public backing the over greater than 70% is 4-13. There is so much cool stuff to derive from this information, whether you want to believe it or not. We even have specific trends for specific teams, like the public is 5-1 backing overs in Bears games, wild!
As for the general trends – we are continuing to see similar trends from last year, like the public doing well on the under, but bad on the over. Through 6 weeks last year, the public was 21-39 on overs, so they are pretty much right in line with what happened last year.
Additionally, the public, money, and sharp differential continue to rake in money backing unders. This week there are more games with sharp edges towards the over, so this will be a telling week in my opinion for the totals. However, keep in mind our trends towards the under last year dropped to slightly below 60% throughout the whole year, whereas the under trends are sitting well above 60% right now.
However, from a spread standpoint, the public continues to be the story this year. It felt like every bet they took was the right side, and it’s starting to turn around. Last year the public held around .500 for the majority of the year, and finished slightly below it, so I would expect regressions is still coming. The issue is how can we know which week is the right one to fade them entirely?
We can’t, but we can take a look at the deeper trends each week. Knowing last week the public had its worst week of the season indicates to me they’ll continue on a downturn. We also saw the Bucs pull out a back door cover cash in on Thursday night, where the Bills were the public favorite. These are small things that could lead to a bad week from the public.
Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!
Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on Twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!
Week 8 NFL Best Bets and Analysis
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers (+2), Total 41.5
In a beautiful NFC North matchup we have the Vikings heading into Lambeau to face off against the Jordan Love-backed Packers. Minnesota is coming off a massive underdog win against a Super Bowl favorite and the Packers are coming off an ugly loss to the Broncos in Denver. I think this is a classic buy low/sell high spot for the Packers coming in as a home divisional dog. The Vikings’ crux this year has been their turnovers, and despite pulling it out against the Niners, still showed signs of those issues. The Packers may seem like they are still trending downward, but LaFleur is 14-6 ATS after a loss and 16-7 ATS as an underdog. It may be a bit scary with how this offense looked against Denver, but dogs at home in this division will win us more money in the long term than we know. The public likes this side, but we’ve got a massive sharp edge and like I said on the podcast this week, I’m expecting a good week for all sharp differentials. Hopefully, the Golden Rule will start making a comeback.
The Play: Packers +2 -110 (1u)
New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts (+1.5), Total 43.5
After allowing nearly 40 points to the Cleveland Browns, the public is slamming the over in this Saints vs Colts matchup. I, for one, am on the other side of things and love the under. The Saints’ offense has not been anything fancy this year, the story remains their defense. We saw a strong defensive line get run all over last week when the Browns allowed 38 to the Colts, but that was the exception to the rule rather than the norm. I think this is a slight overreaction in the market to increase this line from where it should be based on the outcomes last week. This Saints defense should be able to calm the Zach Moss and Jonathon Taylor show in Indy to get back to seeing unders and it doesn’t seem like anyone has an issue stopping the Saints offense. Sharp differential towards the under is sitting in a strong trend as well towards unders.
The Play: Under 43.5 -110 (1u)
Atlanta Falcons vs Tennessee Titans (+2.5), Total 35.5
In the lowest total game of the week we find two run centric offenses matchup in Tennessee. We backed Desmond Ridder and this Falcons squad to get it done last week against a division rival, but everytime I watch this Falcons offense I see how limited they are with Ridder as their QB, and he even looks improved. I love the Titans in this spot as a home dog, but can’t get there on the 2.5 with a backup quarterback. Both offenses are going to be focused heavily on the run as that is both of their playstyles. As I talked about on the podcast, the defensive strength of Tennessee (and Atlanta) are their defensive fronts and run defense. Limited quarterback dynamics and good run offenses vs good run defenses screams an under, and who doesn’t love a low under.
The Play: Under 35.5 (1u)
Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers (-5.5), Total 48
In another buy low spot, we find the 49ers coming off two losses and facing the Bengals off a bye. The Niners are slowly getting healthier by the week as Trent Williams should be back in the lineup here, while the Bengals are still missing offensive linemen and have major secondary issues. The public is all over the Bengals as a dog in Santa Clara and I couldn’t love this spot more for the Niners. I don’t buy the Bengals being back by any means and the personnel of the Niners is far better than that of the Bengals, despite Cincy winning the quarterback battle. I think the public continues its downward spiral of not covering and think this should be closer to a touchdown.
The Play: Niners -5.5 (1u) -110
Baltimore Ravens vs Arizona Cardinals (+9.5), Total 44.5
The last few weeks the Ravens have looked like a Super Bowl winning team with Lamar Jackson looking incredibly efficient. They took care of the high powered Lions with ease and can’t be stopped. Now they get to play the question mark offense of Josh Dobbs and company in Arizona. I want to back Arizona in this spot as a massive home dog, but I think the under is the safer play. The Ravens defense might have staked its claim for the number one defense last week with a bad week from the Browns D and 6 points allowed to the Lions. So, I expect them to be able to manage this limited Cardinals offense. Defensively, Gannon has Arizona playing well too though. And with the Ravens being so run heavy, this total should soar under. For some reason the public is slightly on the over, but the money loves the under and this scenario has been killing it on the under – as most under situations have been.
The Play: Under 44.5 (1u) -110
Plays without a writeup:
- Dallas -0.5/Titans +8.5 -130 Teaser for 1u (both positive sharp diff. Home side)
- Dolphins -8.5 -110 1u
- Steelers ML +110 0.5u
The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)
After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 6 of NFL!
- Eagles/Commanders – I lean Commanders in this divisional matchup. Feels like Ron Rivera always has enough to edge out a cover against Philly. I’ll be at this game supporting the Eagles so don’t want to bet it, but trends love Washington here.
- Texans/Panthers – I lean Panthers here but I hate it. This is either going to be a last possession wins the game type game, or the Texans are going to blow the Panthers out of the water. Carolina has not looked great against anyone, so I’m not putting any money on them here.
- Jets/Giants – As much as I want to bet something in the Battle for New York, I can’t quite get there on either side. I love the under but fear it may be too low for this bad Giants defense. I lean the Jets, but trends seem to be split down the middle, so staying away.
- Browns/Seahawks: I really like the Browns in this spot, but their dud last week is making me throw caution to the wind. Publix is on Seattle with money on the Browns, so I may grab this one closer to kickoff.
- Chiefs/Broncos: I lean the Broncos, but like I said on the podcast I also hate it. Mahomes as a large dog isn’t always great, but whenever the Chiefs want they can take games over. And who wants to back the Broncos?
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