What We Learned in the Premier League: Feb 19

Week in Review for the English Premier League

If you weren’t aware that the club calendar is raring to kick into its final gear, let this past weekend serve as notice because we are about to hit the season’s home stretch where trophies are won and European dollars are secured. Clubs that are struggling for form right now will need to pick it up ASAP as the remaining calendar leaves little time for hiccups. It’s win now or leave yourself short of whatever goals or expectations you entered with at the beginning of the season. 

Let’s start with the first game of the weekend that saw Liverpool looking to retain their position as the pacesetter for the title contenders. A visit to Brentford in recent seasons has often provided an opportunity for the teams at the top of the table to take a stumble and provide their direct competitors to pounce so Klopp’s side had to come into this one with the proper mindset to avoid the pitfall in front of them, especially with the dreaded early kickoff time slot that creates its own set of problems. However on this day, there would be no slip-ups or banana peels. Despite a frenetic opening 10 minutes, Liverpool settled in and Captain Chaos (Darwin Nunez) himself opened the scoring with a beautiful chip of the keeper that will delight Liverpool supporters in the moment but no doubt be frustrating as they are reminded of what kind of finishes he is capable of the next time he drills a wide open chance off the crossbar.

Liverpool controlled the game from then out finishing with a comfortable 4-1 victory that saw them push their lead back to 5pts with Arsenal and City yet to play. It wasn’t all good news for the Reds, however, as they saw both Curits Jones and Diogo Jota leave the pitch in the first half through injury. Early reports indicate the Jota’s may be the more serious of the two and he may not return to the Liverpool lineup for the rest of the season which is a massive blow as he’s been Liverpool’s second most reliable forward this season behind the resurgent Mohamed Salah. 

With the ball now in their court, Arsenal had the opportunity to answer Liverpool with a trip to Burnley. It took all of 4 minutes for Arsenal to find the back of the net and frankly, it never looked like Burnley were ready to compete in this one as the Gunners ran away with a devastatingly easy 5-0 win on the road. 

Surely this result added to their recent 3 game win streak is enough for me to now consider Arsenal genuine title contenders, right? Not quite. Their recent goal scoring form is much closer to what we expected at the beginning of the season but they never found that attacking form and were squeaking 1 goal victories out at the last minute against vastly inferior sides. I think the recent run of form is simply down to a more open fixture list. Arsenal played just 3 games in the 31 days of January and another 3 in the first 3 weeks of February. This is similar to what we saw last season too as they didn’t have midweek European games to deal with during their title charge that eventually ran out of steam as Spring came around. I expect the midweek Champions League games to have a similar impact to Arsenal’s form that we saw in the first half of this season and that the Gunners will begin to see their League form dip as a result. For now, this still remains a two horse race between Liverpool and the reigning champions, Manchester City. 

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Marquee Premier League Matchup over the Weekend

With 2 out of the top 3 clubs picking up wins in the early hours of the weekend, all eyes shifted over to Manchester City as they hosted Chelsea in what was most likely the “marquee matchup” of the weekend. Chelsea’s poor form this season has stolen the luster from this matchup but it still provided them with a chance to prove that their 4-4 draw with City earlier in the season wasn’t a fluke and more indicative of the positive results this squad can achieve on their day. 

Despite the odds being heavily against them (they were +600 ML), Chelsea managed to string together a complete performance. They opened the scoring with former City player Raheem Sterling finishing off a counterattack late in the first half giving Chelsea a legitimately deserved lead. Chelsea bunkered down in the second half, fending off wave after wave of City attacks before ultimately conceding the equalizer to Rodri in the 83’ minute. The match finished a draw which will satisfy Chelsea fans as they managed to get a result against City in both games this season and perhaps provide a silver lining on this otherwise woeful season. City will feel massively disappointed as this was a match at home that they could and maybe even should have pulled all 3 points from.  

The title race now stands with Liverpool sitting firmly in first with a 2 point advantage over Arsenal and a 4 point lead over City who have a game in hand. This coming week will see City play that game in hand at vs Brentford so by this time next week, all teams will be level in games played and the true standings will be known. The looming match between City and Liverpool in 3 weeks time will be crucial in setting the stage for the final run in of the season. Liverpool would only need a draw at home now vs City to retain their lead and with City and Arsenal yet to face each other a second time, are guaranteed that at least one of them will be dropping points not long after. Should Liverpool beat City on March 10, it would give them a massive advantage heading into the last 9 matches of the season and would likely make them the books’ favorites for the title for the first time all season. 

Until then, we can tide ourselves over with the return of Champions League football midweek which you can get yourselves prepped for by watching the Kicks and Picks Podcast Round of 16 Preview over on our Youtube channel!

Outside the top 3, the hottest team in the league right now might just be the other team in Manchester. The Red Devils rattled off their 4th consecutive win over Luton Town on Sunday giving them a positive goal differential on the season for the first time in months. Thanks to Tottenham’s pitiful loss at home to Wolves, Ten Hag now sees his side just 3 points shy of the top 5 and within reach of a Champions League qualification spot. Their March fixture list should have Red Devil fans salivating because after their Derby matchup vs City to open the month, they get Everton, Sheffield, and Brentford to finish the month which could very well see them sneak into the top 5 come April. 

The worst team in the league right now could very well be West Ham. Whoo boy do West Ham look rough right now. Winless so far in 2024, they have been outscored 14-3 in their last 6 matches and really have no excuse for their poor form. Grabbing Kalvin Phillips on loan was always a head-scratcher but even with those low expectations to start with, his time with the Hammers has already gone from bad to worse. He picked up a pair of yellow cards in the opening 20 minutes of their match vs Nottingham Forest resulting in West Ham playing with just 10 men for the majority of the match. The loss sees them now on the outside looking in for Europe qualification and might need to win the Europa League if they want to have midweek matches across the continent next season. 

Wrapping up the rest of the matches, Newcastle continued to look far off the pace they set for themselves last year and dropped points to Bournemouth at home. We’ve discussed how poor they have been on the road all season long but to now be dropping points to bottom-half teams at HOME is a major red flag for Eddie Howe as they will now face a bitter fight to qualify for any European competition next season. Brighton managed to take advantage of Newcastle’s sliding form as they picked up a resounding 5-0 win over Sheffield United that shuffled them back into 7th place but still a distant ways off of United in 6th. The writing has been on the wall for Sheffield United for a while now but with the gap between them and 17th place now sitting at 7 pts, which is more than half of the points they’ve accumulated all season long, it seems a foregone conclusion that they will be back in the Championship next season.

We have a busy week on deck in England this week. City will play their game in hand vs Brentford on Tuesday followed by Liverpool playing their match vs Luton Town on Wednesday prior to their matchup with Chelsea in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday. Next Monday could see Liverpool well in first in the league with a trophy already in their back pocket, or it could also see them dropped back into second or third place with finals defeat looming over their final months with Jurgen Klopp. Such is the nature of this neck-and-neck fight for first while we enter the waning months of the 2023/2024 club schedule. 

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